No, Trump will not be worse than Biden for Palestine and the Middle East

Since former United States President Donald Trump’s election victory, many observers have predicted that his administration would be far worse for Palestine and the Middle East. His pro-Israel rhetoric and threats to bomb Iran, they say, point to his foreign policy intentions.
Yet a closer look at US foreign policy over the past eight years reveals that nothing fundamental will change for the Palestinian people and the region as a whole. This is because President Joe Biden’s administration in effect continued the policies of the first Trump presidency without major changes. Although there may be surprises and unexpected developments, the second Trump administration will continue in the same direction it set back in 2017 and Biden decided to maintain in 2021.
There are three main elements of this foreign policy. First is the decision to abandon any remaining pretence about US support for a “two-state solution”, in which Palestine would enjoy full self-determination and sovereignty within 1967 borders and with East Jerusalem as its capital.
The first Trump administration made that clear by moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, accepting the Israeli annexation of Palestinian territories, encouraging illegal settlement expansion and backing the creation of a “Palestinian entity” that would not enjoy sovereignty.
What the Trump administration offered to the Palestinians was some economic support in exchange for giving up their political rights and self-determination aspirations.
While the Biden administration rhetorically backed the “two-state solution”, it did not do anything to push for its realisation. In fact, it continued the policies set by the Trump administration that undermine such a solution.
Biden did not close the US embassy in Jerusalem and did nothing to stop settlement expansion or roll back Israeli efforts to annex large parts of the occupied West Bank. Although some sanctions were applied to Israeli settlers as individuals, this was largely a symbolic move that has not hampered the settlement movement or the expulsion of Palestinians from their homes and lands.
Furthermore, the Biden administration accepted the idea that any future Palestinian state would not enjoy full rights of self-determination or sovereignty.
We know this because the Biden administration holds the position that Palestinian statehood can only come “through direct negotiations between the parties”. But because Israel has made it clear in policy and law that it will never accept a Palestinian state, the Biden administration’s position in effect means a rejection of Palestinian self-determination and sovereignty.
The second element of the Trump-Biden foreign policy is the advancement of Arab normalisation with Israel through the Abraham Accords. The first Trump administration initiated this path with normalisation deals between Israel and Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The Biden administration vigorously pursued this path, exerting significant effort to normalise relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Had it not been for the ongoing genocide of the past year, this normalisation deal might have already been achieved by now.
What the Abraham Accords path essentially means is that the Arab states would recognise Israel’s full sovereignty over historic Palestine, putting an end to claims for restitution and justice for the Palestinian people. It would deny the Palestinian right of return and abolish the refugee status of Palestinian refugees. It would also give Arab legitimacy and recognition to a Palestinian entity created on 5 to 8 percent of historic Palestine that would have limited self-administration and no right to self-determination.
The third element of the Trump-Biden policy is the containment of Iran. The Trump administration famously cancelled the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which had provided sanctions relief in exchange for limits on the Iranian nuclear programme. It also placed more severe sanctions on Iran and tried to isolate the country politically and economically. The Biden administration did not restore the JCPOA and continued the same sanctions regime against Iran.
What is more, it also continued to push Trump’s vision for the establishment of a new economic and security arrangement in the region between Israel and Arab states to secure US interests and isolate Iran.
If realised, this pact would enhance the US ability to project military power, secure its access to critical energy resources and trade routes, and weaken resistance to US imperialism, so the US would be in a better position to confront not just Iran but also China and other adversaries.
Thus, in essence, the Biden administration, despite its rhetorical pretences and supposed commitment to human rights, has done nothing different from its predecessor. Both administrations have worked over the past eight years to ensure the end of the Palestinian struggle for self-determination and full sovereignty and create a new Middle East in which Israel plays an even more prominent economic and military role in defending US imperial interests.
The Biden administration has gone even further, allowing Israel to transform its slow genocide of Palestinians into an accelerated one, whereby unimaginable numbers of Palestinians are exterminated and large parts of Gaza are depopulated.
Based on Trump’s proclamations during the campaign and the advisers, donors and supporters whom he is surrounded with, there is every reason to believe his second administration will continue to push further down this bipartisan path to eliminate the “Palestinian Question” once and for all.
We can expect to see more unconditional support for Israel to officially annex the majority of the West Bank, the permanent Israeli colonisation of parts of the Gaza Strip, the expulsion of masses of Palestinians under the pretext of pursuing “peace, security and prosperity”, and the advancement of Israel’s economic and security integration into the region to weaken Iran and its allies, including China.
Those who stand in the way of this plan are the Palestinian people with their national aspirations for freedom and liberation as well as other nations across the Arab world that are tired of war, political violence, repression and impoverishment.
The Trump administration will try to deal with this resistance by buying people off with economic incentives and the threat of violence and repression. But this approach will have – as it always has had – limited impact.
Resistance to these plans will persist because Palestinians and others in the region understand that giving up one’s right to justice means giving up one’s very identity as a free and dignified human being. And people would rather suffer the threats of empire than give up their humanity.
What this ultimately means is that not only will resistance persist, but it is likely to grow and intensify, moving the world closer to a path of great wars – the very opposite of what vast numbers of Americans voted for in November 5 elections.
The Palestinians, other fellow nations in the region and to a certain extent ordinary Americans will continue to suffer the consequences of a bipartisan foreign policy that has set the US on a fundamentally destructive path of genocide and war.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.